Gagra 2-1 Samtredia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 10 May 2024

📅10/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.8
Over 2.5
54%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
20%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.3pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.7pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.4pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gagra EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Samtredia EU Bookmakers 30%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +11%
1.13/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.10
-24% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +27%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gagra
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Samtredia
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 Samtredia Samtredia 1-3 HT 1-2 Gagra Gagra GUR
28.11.2023 Gagra Gagra 4-3 HT 2-3 Samtredia Samtredia GUR
23.09.2023 Samtredia Samtredia 3-1 HT 3-1 Gagra Gagra GUR
28.05.2023 Gagra Gagra 0-1 HT 0-0 Samtredia Samtredia GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gagra
2-1
AWAY Samtredia
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gagra vs Samtredia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gagra nicked a narrow win over Samtredia 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gagra as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Gagra had 43% of the ball to Samtredia's 57%, shots finished 10-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Gagra and 2.00 for Samtredia.

What was the final score of Gagra vs Samtredia?

Gagra 2-1 Samtredia in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gagra vs Samtredia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gagra win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gagra 45%, draw 24%, Samtredia 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gagra), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gagra) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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