Tigres UANL 1-2 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 10 May 2024

📅10/05/2024 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
32%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.46
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.44
6+ Goals
9%
13.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 27% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.76
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
11%
12.1
X/1
16%
5.81
X/2
15%
5.77
X/X
11%
4.42
2/1
10%
28.5
2/2
12%
3.73
2/X
5%
12.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+3.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
33%
Away Win
35%
-2.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.9pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 39%
-6% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +12%
1.03/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.18
-24% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
327 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 80%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
23.3 Crosses 17.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Monterrey
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.00 xG 1.25
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
366 Passes 304
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
14.04.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 3-3 HT 1-2 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
24.09.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 3-0 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
09.08.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 0-1 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey CONLK
21.05.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 0-1 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
18.05.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-1 HT 0-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
19.03.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 0-1 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tigres UANL
1-2
AWAY Monterrey
1.62 xG 2.47
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 0
406 Passes 220
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 21
27 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Tigres UANL vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey edged past Tigres UANL 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Monterrey made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Tigres UANL had 64% of the ball to Monterrey's 36%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.62 to 2.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tigres UANL and 1.00 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Monterrey?

Tigres UANL 1-2 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 40%, draw 28%, Monterrey 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tigres UANL), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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