Deportes Tolima 3-1 Union Magdalena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 10 May 2025

📅10/05/2025 · 🕒02:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
20%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.64
Over 2.5
39%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.53
No
61%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-11.7pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.1pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+8.5pp
61%
Under 2.5
57%
+3.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
43%
-3.4pp
39%
BTTS Yes
36%
+3.8pp
61%
BTTS No
64%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Magdalena EU Bookmakers 14%
+2% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.33/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/1.53
+7% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -7%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
357 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 76%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.6
17.0 Crosses 11.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportes Tolima
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Union Magdalena
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.09 xG 0.76
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
333 Passes 303
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-1 HT 2-1 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena KOL
14.05.2023 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 1-1 HT 0-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
19.07.2022 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 2-1 HT 2-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
01.02.2022 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-1 HT 1-1 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena KOL
14.09.2019 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 1-2 HT 0-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
24.03.2019 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-0 HT 0-0 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportes Tolima
3-1
AWAY Union Magdalena
1.30 xG 0.36
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 0
438 Passes 228
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 10
24 Crosses 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Union Magdalena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima got the better of Union Magdalena 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Deportes Tolima as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportes Tolima had 64% of the ball to Union Magdalena's 36%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.30 to 0.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Deportes Tolima and 1.00 for Union Magdalena.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Union Magdalena?

Deportes Tolima 3-1 Union Magdalena in the Colombia - Primera on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Union Magdalena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 55%, draw 26%, Union Magdalena 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportes Tolima) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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