Neftçi PFK 3-0 Shamakhi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 10 May 2026

📅10/05/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
18%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
60%
-1.5pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.5pp
18%
Away Win
18%
+0.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.7pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Shamakhi EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +14%
2.04/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.34
+6% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Shamakhi
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
28.02.2026 Shamakhi Shamakhi 2-2 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
16.08.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-1 HT 1-1 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
07.04.2025 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-2 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
31.01.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-0 HT 1-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
08.11.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-2 HT 2-2 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
31.08.2024 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Shamakhi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK ran out comfortable winners over Shamakhi 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Neftçi PFK as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Neftçi PFK and 0.83 for Shamakhi.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Shamakhi?

Neftçi PFK 3-0 Shamakhi in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 10/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Shamakhi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 58%, draw 24%, Shamakhi 18%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
10 May 2026
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