Varzim 1-2 CF Os Belenenses — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 10 May 2026

📅10/05/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.46
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
45%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
30%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+3.3pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.7pp
45%
Away Win
47%
-1.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-2.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+2.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.9pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varzim EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Os Belenenses EU Bookmakers 51%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.26/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/0.37
+9% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +150%
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
285 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Varzim
0W-2D-1L
AWAY CF Os Belenenses
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.03.2026 CF Os Belenenses 3-2 HT 2-1 Varzim Varzim POR3
26.04.2025 Varzim Varzim 0-0 HT 0-0 CF Os Belenenses POR3
01.03.2025 CF Os Belenenses 0-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Varzim
1-2
AWAY CF Os Belenenses
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Varzim vs CF Os Belenenses
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CF Os Belenenses nicked a narrow win over Varzim 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had CF Os Belenenses as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Varzim had 54% of the ball to CF Os Belenenses's 46%, shots finished 10-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, CF Os Belenenses led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Varzim and 1.00 for CF Os Belenenses.

What was the final score of Varzim vs CF Os Belenenses?

Varzim 1-2 CF Os Belenenses in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 10/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varzim vs CF Os Belenenses?

Before kick-off our model rated an CF Os Belenenses win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Varzim 29%, draw 26%, CF Os Belenenses 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CF Os Belenenses), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CF Os Belenenses) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR3 More Portugal - 3rd Division
10 May 2026
16:45 Amarante vs Uniao Santarem Analysis →