CF Os Belenenses 3-2 Varzim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-0.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.6pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CF Os Belenenses EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Varzim EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -15%
1.10/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.43
-18% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
352 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 205 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CF Os Belenenses
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Varzim
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.04.2025 Varzim Varzim 0-0 HT 0-0 CF Os Belenenses POR3
01.03.2025 CF Os Belenenses 0-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CF Os Belenenses
3-2
AWAY Varzim
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CF Os Belenenses vs Varzim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CF Os Belenenses edged past Varzim 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had CF Os Belenenses as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, CF Os Belenenses had 55% of the ball to Varzim's 45%, shots finished 19-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for CF Os Belenenses and 0.00 for Varzim.

What was the final score of CF Os Belenenses vs Varzim?

CF Os Belenenses 3-2 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CF Os Belenenses vs Varzim?

Before kick-off our model rated a CF Os Belenenses win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split CF Os Belenenses 47%, draw 26%, Varzim 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CF Os Belenenses), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CF Os Belenenses) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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