Sporting Covilha 1-3 Lusitano Évora 1911 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.29
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.52
Over 2.5
39%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
29%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
27%
+0.6pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.6pp
44%
Away Win
44%
+0.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.8pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitano Évora 1911 EU Bookmakers 48%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.15/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
+2% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
266 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Covilha
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Lusitano Évora 1911
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.01.2026 Lusitano Évora 1911 Lusitano Évora 1911 2-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
22.11.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 0-2 HT 0-2 Lusitano Évora 1911 Lusitano Évora 1911 POK
28.09.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-1 HT 1-1 Lusitano Évora 1911 Lusitano Évora 1911 POR3
24.09.2023 Lusitano Évora 1911 Lusitano Évora 1911 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Covilha
1-3
AWAY Lusitano Évora 1911
67% Ball Possession 33%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 8
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Covilha vs Lusitano Évora 1911
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitano Évora 1911 beat Sporting Covilha 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lusitano Évora 1911 as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting Covilha had 67% of the ball to Lusitano Évora 1911's 33%, shots finished 10-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Lusitano Évora 1911 led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sporting Covilha and 1.25 for Lusitano Évora 1911.

What was the final score of Sporting Covilha vs Lusitano Évora 1911?

Sporting Covilha 1-3 Lusitano Évora 1911 in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Covilha vs Lusitano Évora 1911?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lusitano Évora 1911 win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sporting Covilha 28%, draw 29%, Lusitano Évora 1911 44%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitano Évora 1911) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lusitano Évora 1911) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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