Sporting Covilha 1-1 Lusitano Évora 1911 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.46
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
38%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
19%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
37%
-5.3pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.4pp
38%
Away Win
33%
+4.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.1pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitano Évora 1911 EU Bookmakers 37%
-10% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -48% / -48%
1.07/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.00
-17% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
285 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Covilha
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Lusitano Évora 1911
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.09.2023 Lusitano Évora 1911 Lusitano Évora 1911 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Covilha
1-1
AWAY Lusitano Évora 1911
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Covilha vs Lusitano Évora 1911
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Covilha and Lusitano Évora 1911 shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match split (32% / 30% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sporting Covilha had 49% of the ball to Lusitano Évora 1911's 51%, shots finished 9-10.

What was the final score of Sporting Covilha vs Lusitano Évora 1911?

Sporting Covilha 1-1 Lusitano Évora 1911 in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Covilha vs Lusitano Évora 1911?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lusitano Évora 1911 win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sporting Covilha 32%, draw 30%, Lusitano Évora 1911 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lusitano Évora 1911) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lusitano Évora 1911) ✓ Under 2.5
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