Amarante 2-2 Sao Joao Ver — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.5pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.5pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.2pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amarante EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Joao Ver EU Bookmakers 30%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.16/0.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/2.16
-11% / +76% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -43%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
382 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amarante
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Sao Joao Ver
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
42% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2024 Amarante Amarante 2-0 HT 2-0 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver POR3
17.08.2024 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver 0-3 HT 0-1 Amarante Amarante POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amarante
2-2
AWAY Sao Joao Ver
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Amarante vs Sao Joao Ver
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amarante and Sao Joao Ver couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Amarante at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Amarante had 49% of the ball to Sao Joao Ver's 51%, shots finished 15-12.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Amarante had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Amarante and 0.00 for Sao Joao Ver.

What was the final score of Amarante vs Sao Joao Ver?

Amarante 2-2 Sao Joao Ver in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amarante vs Sao Joao Ver?

Before kick-off our model rated a Amarante win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Amarante 45%, draw 25%, Sao Joao Ver 29%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Amarante), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Amarante) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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