Sanjoanense 2-2 Paredes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
43%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
25%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+0.8pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
43%
Away Win
42%
+0.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.5pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanjoanense EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Paredes EU Bookmakers 46%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+2% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
291 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanjoanense
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Paredes
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
18.02.2023 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense 1-1 HT 0-0 Paredes Paredes POR3
04.11.2022 Paredes Paredes 3-2 HT 1-1 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanjoanense
2-2
AWAY Paredes
64% Ball Possession 36%
9 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sanjoanense vs Paredes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanjoanense and Paredes shared the points in a 2-2 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Paredes at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sanjoanense had 64% of the ball to Paredes's 36%, shots finished 9-11.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Paredes led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sanjoanense and 2.00 for Paredes.

What was the final score of Sanjoanense vs Paredes?

Sanjoanense 2-2 Paredes in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanjoanense vs Paredes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paredes win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sanjoanense 31%, draw 27%, Paredes 43%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paredes), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paredes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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