Lusitano Évora 1911 2-1 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 4 Jan 2026

📅04/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
18%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
4%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
57%
-1.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
18%
Away Win
18%
+0.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.7pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitano Évora 1911 EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 21%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
2.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.22
+36% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +15%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
348 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitano Évora 1911
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Sporting Covilha
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.11.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 0-2 HT 0-2 Lusitano Évora 1911 Lusitano Évora 1911 POK
28.09.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-1 HT 1-1 Lusitano Évora 1911 Lusitano Évora 1911 POR3
24.09.2023 Lusitano Évora 1911 Lusitano Évora 1911 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitano Évora 1911
2-1
AWAY Sporting Covilha
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitano Évora 1911 squeezed past Sporting Covilha 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lusitano Évora 1911 as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lusitano Évora 1911 had 53% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 47%, shots finished 14-3.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lusitano Évora 1911 had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lusitano Évora 1911 and 0.33 for Sporting Covilha.

What was the final score of Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Sporting Covilha?

Lusitano Évora 1911 2-1 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 04/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitano Évora 1911 win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Lusitano Évora 1911 56%, draw 26%, Sporting Covilha 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitano Évora 1911) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lusitano Évora 1911) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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