Sao Joao Ver 0-1 Amarante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 4 Jan 2026

📅04/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
34%
3.04
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.54
Over 2.5
40%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-1.8pp
34%
Draw
30%
+4.5pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
61%
-1.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
39%
+1.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.6pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Joao Ver EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Amarante EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
0.97/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.39/1.21
-22% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -69% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
294 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Joao Ver
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Amarante
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.09.2025 Amarante Amarante 2-2 HT 1-2 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver POR3
01.12.2024 Amarante Amarante 2-0 HT 2-0 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver POR3
17.08.2024 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver 0-3 HT 0-1 Amarante Amarante POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Joao Ver
0-1
AWAY Amarante
59% Ball Possession 41%
6 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 0
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sao Joao Ver vs Amarante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amarante squeezed past Sao Joao Ver 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (35% / 34% / 31%) promised a tight game; Amarante found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sao Joao Ver had 59% of the ball to Amarante's 41%, shots finished 6-6.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Amarante led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sao Joao Ver and 2.33 for Amarante.

What was the final score of Sao Joao Ver vs Amarante?

Sao Joao Ver 0-1 Amarante in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 04/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Joao Ver vs Amarante?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Joao Ver win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Sao Joao Ver 35%, draw 34%, Amarante 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sao Joao Ver) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sao Joao Ver) ✓ Under 2.5
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