Fafe 1-0 Varzim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 4 Jan 2026

Fafe
1-0 HT 1-0
Varzim
📅04/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.6
Over 2.5
47%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
42%
+4.4pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.1pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.6pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fafe EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Varzim EU Bookmakers 33%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -5%
1.48/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.19
+17% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
259 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fafe
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Varzim
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.09.2025 Varzim Varzim 1-1 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
17.05.2025 Varzim Varzim 5-3 HT 1-1 Fafe Fafe POR3
29.03.2025 Fafe Fafe 1-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
09.11.2024 Fafe Fafe 2-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
10.08.2024 Varzim Varzim 0-2 HT 0-1 Fafe Fafe POR3
03.12.2023 Varzim Varzim 0-1 HT 0-1 Fafe Fafe POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fafe
1-0
AWAY Varzim
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Fafe vs Varzim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fafe nicked a narrow win over Varzim 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fafe as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Fafe had 47% of the ball to Varzim's 53%, shots finished 12-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fafe had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Fafe and 1.00 for Varzim.

What was the final score of Fafe vs Varzim?

Fafe 1-0 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 04/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fafe vs Varzim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Fafe 46%, draw 25%, Varzim 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fafe), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fafe) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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