Varzim 1-1 Fafe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 28 Sep 2025

Varzim
1-1 HT 0-0
Fafe
📅28/09/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.05
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
45%
+1.5pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.9pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varzim EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Fafe EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -14%
1.37/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.99
+7% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -38%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
221 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Varzim
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Fafe
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
55% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
17.05.2025 Varzim Varzim 5-3 HT 1-1 Fafe Fafe POR3
29.03.2025 Fafe Fafe 1-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
09.11.2024 Fafe Fafe 2-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
10.08.2024 Varzim Varzim 0-2 HT 0-1 Fafe Fafe POR3
03.12.2023 Varzim Varzim 0-1 HT 0-1 Fafe Fafe POR3
20.08.2023 Fafe Fafe 0-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Varzim
1-1
AWAY Fafe
38% Ball Possession 62%
4 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Varzim vs Fafe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varzim and Fafe shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Varzim at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Varzim had 38% of the ball to Fafe's 62%, shots finished 4-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fafe led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Varzim and 1.50 for Fafe.

What was the final score of Varzim vs Fafe?

Varzim 1-1 Fafe in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varzim vs Fafe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Varzim win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Varzim 46%, draw 24%, Fafe 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Varzim), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Varzim) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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