Varzim 5-3 Fafe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 17 May 2025

Varzim
5-3 HT 1-1
Fafe
📅17/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-7.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varzim EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Fafe EU Bookmakers 24%
-6% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +25%
1.45/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.05
-5% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +31%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Varzim
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Fafe
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 4
29.03.2025 Fafe Fafe 1-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
09.11.2024 Fafe Fafe 2-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
10.08.2024 Varzim Varzim 0-2 HT 0-1 Fafe Fafe POR3
03.12.2023 Varzim Varzim 0-1 HT 0-1 Fafe Fafe POR3
20.08.2023 Fafe Fafe 0-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
06.05.2023 Varzim Varzim 1-0 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Varzim
5-3
AWAY Fafe
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Varzim vs Fafe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varzim beat Fafe 5-3. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Varzim as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Varzim had 39% of the ball to Fafe's 61%, shots finished 12-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fafe led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Varzim and 1.00 for Fafe.

What was the final score of Varzim vs Fafe?

Varzim 5-3 Fafe in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varzim vs Fafe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Varzim win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Varzim 46%, draw 27%, Fafe 27%. The final score 5-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Varzim) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Varzim) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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