AEK Larnaca 1-0 FK Partizan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 10 Jul 2025

📅10/07/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
29%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.03
Over Pick
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
23%
3.64
2-3
41%
1.8
4-5
25%
3.1
6+
11%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
46%
Home Win
63%
-16.3pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.2pp
29%
Away Win
16%
+13.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.5pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AEK Larnaca The Market 67%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Partizan The Market 19%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +5%
2.85/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/2.00
+34% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +79% / -2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
382 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
Crosses 13.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AEK Larnaca
1W-1D-0L
AWAY FK Partizan
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
11.08.2022 FK Partizan FK Partizan 2-2 HT 1-0 AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca AVL
04.08.2022 AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca 2-1 HT 1-1 FK Partizan FK Partizan AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AEK Larnaca
1-0
AWAY FK Partizan
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 0
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AEK Larnaca vs FK Partizan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AEK Larnaca nicked a narrow win over FK Partizan 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AEK Larnaca as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, AEK Larnaca had 56% of the ball to FK Partizan's 44%, shots finished 14-4.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, AEK Larnaca had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for AEK Larnaca and 1.50 for FK Partizan.

What was the final score of AEK Larnaca vs FK Partizan?

AEK Larnaca 1-0 FK Partizan in the UEFA Europa League on 10/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AEK Larnaca vs FK Partizan?

Before kick-off our model rated a AEK Larnaca win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split AEK Larnaca 46%, draw 24%, FK Partizan 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AEK Larnaca) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AEK Larnaca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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