Lunds BK 1-1 AFC Malmö — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - 1st Division, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
2.18
Over
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
38%
4-5
23%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-1.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.5pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.3pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lunds BK EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Malmö EU Bookmakers 29%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
2.02/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.15
+20% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +41%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
319 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lunds BK
1W-1D-1L
AWAY AFC Malmö
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2024 AFC Malmö 3-1 HT 2-0 Lunds BK Lunds BK İSÇ3
01.09.2023 Lunds BK Lunds BK 3-0 HT 1-0 AFC Malmö İSÇ3
08.04.2023 AFC Malmö 0-0 HT 0-0 Lunds BK Lunds BK İSÇ3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lunds BK
1-1
AWAY AFC Malmö
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lunds BK vs AFC Malmö
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lunds BK and AFC Malmö couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lunds BK at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Lunds BK had 46% of the ball to AFC Malmö's 54%, shots finished 7-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lunds BK and 1.00 for AFC Malmö.

What was the final score of Lunds BK vs AFC Malmö?

Lunds BK 1-1 AFC Malmö in the Sweden - 1st Division on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lunds BK vs AFC Malmö?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lunds BK win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Lunds BK 47%, draw 23%, AFC Malmö 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lunds BK), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lunds BK) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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