Avondale Heights 1-1 South Melbourne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.57
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
35%
+5.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-3.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.0pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avondale Heights EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 43%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +16%
2.01/2.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/0.79
+26% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +89%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
308 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.0 Crosses 18.3
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avondale Heights
3W-0D-3L
AWAY South Melbourne
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.66 xG 1.26
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
329 Passes 158
76% Pass Accuracy 60%
22 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-3 HT 0-1 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights AVNPL
10.09.2023 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 4-0 HT 2-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
12.08.2023 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 2-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
07.05.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 3-0 HT 1-0 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights AVNPL
21.08.2022 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 0-1 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
13.05.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 4-3 HT 0-3 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights AVNPL
POST-MATCH Avondale Heights vs South Melbourne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avondale Heights and South Melbourne shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Avondale Heights and 1.67 for South Melbourne.

What was the final score of Avondale Heights vs South Melbourne?

Avondale Heights 1-1 South Melbourne in the Australia - National Premier League on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avondale Heights vs South Melbourne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avondale Heights win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Avondale Heights 40%, draw 25%, South Melbourne 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Avondale Heights), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Avondale Heights) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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