South Melbourne 1-3 Avondale Heights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 4 May 2024

South Melbourne
1-3 HT 0-1
Avondale Heights
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - National Premier League – 2024

South Melbourne vs Avondale Heights Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
41%
-5.9pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.3pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.4pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

South Melbourne v Avondale Heights — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Avondale Heights EU Bookmakers 37%
+13% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.01/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.60/1.86
-2% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
379 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 73%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
17.2 Crosses 13.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.8

South Melbourne vs Avondale Heights Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Avondale Heights
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.26 xG 0.66
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
158 Passes 329
60% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.09.2023 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 4-0 HT 2-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
12.08.2023 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 2-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
07.05.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 3-0 HT 1-0 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights AVNPL
21.08.2022 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 0-1 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
13.05.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 4-3 HT 0-3 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights AVNPL
15.05.2021 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 2-0 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Avondale Heights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avondale Heights beat South Melbourne 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 29% / 36%) promised a tight game; Avondale Heights found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for South Melbourne and 1.83 for Avondale Heights.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Avondale Heights?

South Melbourne 1-3 Avondale Heights in the Australia - National Premier League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Avondale Heights?

Before kick-off our model rated an Avondale Heights win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 35%, draw 29%, Avondale Heights 36%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avondale Heights), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Avondale Heights) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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