Canberra Olympic 1-2 Tuggeranong United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.37
Draw
17%
4.95
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
3.68
Over 2.5
64%
1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.85
No
45%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
13%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
6%
X/X
7%
2/1
15%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
68%
-7.3pp
17%
Draw
16%
+0.7pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.5pp
36%
Under 2.5
24%
+12.3pp
64%
Over 2.5
76%
-12.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
50%
+4.7pp
45%
BTTS No
50%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Canberra Olympic EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Tuggeranong United EU Bookmakers 20%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
6.13/1.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/2.54
+138% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -15%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
462 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Canberra Olympic
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Tuggeranong United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2023 Tuggeranong United Tuggeranong United 1-0 Canberra Olympic Canberra Olympic AVNPL
17.06.2023 Canberra Olympic Canberra Olympic 2-2 Tuggeranong United Tuggeranong United AVTCT
30.04.2023 Tuggeranong United Tuggeranong United 0-3 Canberra Olympic Canberra Olympic AVNPL
10.08.2021 Tuggeranong United Tuggeranong United 1-1 HT 1-0 Canberra Olympic Canberra Olympic AVNPL
22.05.2021 Canberra Olympic Canberra Olympic 1-1 Tuggeranong United Tuggeranong United AVNPL
29.07.2020 Tuggeranong United Tuggeranong United 1-5 HT 0-1 Canberra Olympic Canberra Olympic AVNPL
POST-MATCH Canberra Olympic vs Tuggeranong United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tuggeranong United edged past Canberra Olympic 2-1 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Canberra Olympic at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Canberra Olympic had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Canberra Olympic and 1.00 for Tuggeranong United.

What was the final score of Canberra Olympic vs Tuggeranong United?

Canberra Olympic 1-2 Tuggeranong United in the Australia - National Premier League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Canberra Olympic vs Tuggeranong United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Canberra Olympic win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Canberra Olympic 60%, draw 17%, Tuggeranong United 22%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Canberra Olympic) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Canberra Olympic) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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