Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Stal Mielec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.45
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
4.42
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.93
6+ Goals
10%
8.66
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.42 — our 25% vs market 17.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.78
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.2
X/1
15%
3.63
X/2
5%
12.6
X/X
8%
6.81
2/1
11%
20.6
2/2
9%
9.52
2/X
7%
18.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
64%
-8.8pp
22%
Draw
20%
+2.4pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.8pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 19%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
2.03/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.64
+22% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
381 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
23.4 Crosses 15.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Stal Mielec
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.75 xG 1.45
59% Ball Possession 41%
23 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
418 Passes 257
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
42 Box Touches 13
29 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
17.05.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
25.11.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-3 HT 2-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
22.04.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 4-2 HT 2-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
07.10.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 4-2 HT 2-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
18.02.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
21.08.2021 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 4-1 HT 0-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
1-0
AWAY Stal Mielec
1.67 xG 0.51
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
529 Passes 232
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin edged past Stal Mielec 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 66% of the ball to Stal Mielec's 34%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.67 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.67 for Stal Mielec.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?

Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Stal Mielec in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 56%, draw 22%, Stal Mielec 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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