Chelsea 4-1 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 10 Aug 2025

Chelsea
4-1 HT 2-0
Milan
📅10/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2025/2026

Chelsea vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
21%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.3
2-3 Goals
42%
1.98
4-5 Goals
25%
2.59
6+ Goals
11%
6.12
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.87
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.9
X/1
13%
4.3
X/2
10%
11.5
X/X
7%
6.99
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
18.9
2/2
6%
8.25
2/X
7%
16.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.9 — our 12% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
61%
-4.0pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.9pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.9pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chelsea v Milan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
2.50/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.62
+14% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / -28%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
492 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 82%
35.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
11.0 Crosses 9.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.1

Chelsea vs Milan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Milan
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.67 xG 0.41
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
538 Passes 308
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
11.10.2022 Milan Milan 0-2 HT 0-2 Chelsea Chelsea ŞMP
05.10.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 3-0 HT 1-0 Milan Milan ŞMP
04.08.2016 Milan Milan 1-3 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea HAZ
29.07.2012 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Milan Milan HAZ
25.07.2009 Milan Milan 1-2 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea HAZ
03.08.2008 Milan Milan 0-5 HT 0-3 Chelsea Chelsea HAZ

Chelsea 4-1 Milan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
4-1
AWAY Milan
2.85 xG 1.42
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
420 Passes 374
93% Pass Accuracy 92%
32 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea ran out comfortable winners over Milan 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Chelsea had 53% of the ball to Milan's 47%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 2.85 to 1.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelsea had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Chelsea and 0.50 for Milan.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Milan?

Chelsea 4-1 Milan in the Friendlies on 10/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 57%, draw 22%, Milan 21%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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