Leiston 3-2 AFC Sudbury — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 10 Sep 2024

📅10/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.09
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
42%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
44%
-7.5pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.8pp
42%
Away Win
30%
+11.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.3pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leiston EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Sudbury EU Bookmakers 34%
+10% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.42/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/0.81
-13% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +93%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
283 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leiston
1W-1D-0L
AWAY AFC Sudbury
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
27.01.2024 Leiston Leiston 2-1 HT 1-1 AFC Sudbury AFC Sudbury İNGNLP
26.09.2023 AFC Sudbury AFC Sudbury 1-1 HT 0-1 Leiston Leiston İNGNLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leiston
3-2
AWAY AFC Sudbury
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Leiston vs AFC Sudbury
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leiston nicked a narrow win over AFC Sudbury 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was AFC Sudbury at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Leiston had 55% of the ball to AFC Sudbury's 45%, shots finished 13-12.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Leiston had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Leiston and 1.00 for AFC Sudbury.

What was the final score of Leiston vs AFC Sudbury?

Leiston 3-2 AFC Sudbury in the England - Non League Premier on 10/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leiston vs AFC Sudbury?

Before kick-off our model rated an AFC Sudbury win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Leiston 36%, draw 22%, AFC Sudbury 42%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AFC Sudbury) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AFC Sudbury) ✓ BTTS Yes
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