Ponte Preta 0-2 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 10 Sep 2024

📅10/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
64%
1.56
Over
36%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.03
No
60%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2.41
2-3
40%
1.78
4-5
17%
4.96
6+
7%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.8pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.6pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.3pp
64%
Under 2.5
60%
+3.5pp
36%
Over 2.5
40%
-3.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
45%
-5.1pp
60%
BTTS No
55%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
1.14/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.32
+2% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
319 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
21.5 Crosses 14.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponte Preta
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Chapecoense
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.86 xG 1.59
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
287 Passes 312
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 24
5 Yellow Cards 2
21.05.2024 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-0 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
06.08.2023 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
29.04.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-1 HT 0-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
04.09.2022 Chapecoense Chapecoense 3-0 HT 1-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
25.05.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 0-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
21.01.2021 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-0 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponte Preta
0-2
AWAY Chapecoense
0.86 xG 1.43
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
284 Passes 304
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 8
17 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ponte Preta vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chapecoense saw off Ponte Preta 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Ponte Preta at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ponte Preta had 49% of the ball to Chapecoense's 51%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 0.86 to 1.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chapecoense led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Ponte Preta and 0.83 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of Ponte Preta vs Chapecoense?

Ponte Preta 0-2 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 10/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponte Preta vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ponte Preta win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Ponte Preta 42%, draw 32%, Chapecoense 26%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Ponte Preta) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ponte Preta) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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