Botafogo SP 3-2 Guarani FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 10 Oct 2024

Botafogo SP
3-2 HT 1-2
Guarani FC
📅10/10/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Botafogo SP vs Guarani FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
33%
2.7
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
70%
1.33
Over 2.5
30%
3.17
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.53
No
63%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
1.73
2-3 Goals
37%
1.96
4-5 Goals
15%
8.83
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 70% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.3pp
33%
Draw
34%
-0.6pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-1.8pp
70%
Under 2.5
72%
-2.3pp
30%
Over 2.5
28%
+2.3pp
37%
BTTS Yes
36%
+1.6pp
63%
BTTS No
64%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Botafogo SP v Guarani FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo SP EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Guarani FC EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +6%
0.86/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.08
-19% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
21.3 Crosses 18.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6

Botafogo SP vs Guarani FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo SP
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Guarani FC
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.91 xG 1.15
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
267 Passes 385
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.05.2024 Guarani FC Guarani FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
28.10.2023 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
04.07.2023 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 1-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
29.01.2023 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 3-2 HT 2-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BREPAU
10.02.2022 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-2 HT 0-2 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BREPAU
04.03.2021 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-1 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BREPAU

Botafogo SP 3-2 Guarani FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo SP
3-2
AWAY Guarani FC
2.24 xG 1.62
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
421 Passes 239
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Botafogo SP vs Guarani FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo SP edged past Guarani FC 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 33% / 29% — and on the day Botafogo SP made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (70%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Botafogo SP had 62% of the ball to Guarani FC's 38%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 2.24 to 1.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo SP had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Botafogo SP and 0.83 for Guarani FC.

What was the final score of Botafogo SP vs Guarani FC?

Botafogo SP 3-2 Guarani FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 10/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo SP vs Guarani FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo SP win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Botafogo SP 38%, draw 33%, Guarani FC 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo SP) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo SP) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
10 Oct 2024
03:00 Paysandu vs Chapecoense Analysis →