Paysandu 2-0 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 10 Oct 2024

📅10/10/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
27%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
59%
1.74
Over 2.5
41%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.06
6+ Goals
9%
19.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 33% vs market 29.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
59%
-15.4pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.7pp
27%
Away Win
16%
+10.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
54%
+4.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
46%
-4.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.5pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paysandu EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 20%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +12%
1.61/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.50
-10% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +21%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
333 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 74%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
30.8 Crosses 13.6
3.4 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paysandu
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Chapecoense
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.06 xG 1.42
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
304 Passes 235
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
23.06.2024 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-2 HT 1-1 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
25.09.2013 Paysandu Paysandu 2-1 HT 2-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
12.06.2013 Chapecoense Chapecoense 3-2 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paysandu
2-0
AWAY Chapecoense
0.73 xG 0.76
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
201 Passes 253
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
7 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 34
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Paysandu vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paysandu beat Chapecoense 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Paysandu as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Paysandu had 45% of the ball to Chapecoense's 55%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 0.73 to 0.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Paysandu had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Paysandu and 1.67 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of Paysandu vs Chapecoense?

Paysandu 2-0 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 10/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paysandu vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paysandu win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Paysandu 44%, draw 29%, Chapecoense 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paysandu), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paysandu) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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