Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Rot-Weiss Essen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 10 Nov 2024

Erzgebirge Aue
2-1 HT 2-0
Rot-Weiss Essen
📅10/11/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Germany - 3rd Division – 2024/2025

Erzgebirge Aue vs Rot-Weiss Essen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.25
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.0
Over Pick
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.74
2-3
37%
1.82
4-5
24%
3.25
6+
12%
11.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.3
1/2 ✗
8%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
20%
5.26
X/2
12%
6.05
X/X
10%
4.9
2/1
5%
25.5
2/2
15%
4.01
2/X
7%
12.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 8% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+2.7pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.0pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.2pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Erzgebirge Aue v Rot-Weiss Essen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Rot-Weiss Essen EU Bookmakers 37%
-8% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.35/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.40
-13% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
339 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
20.3 Crosses 27.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6

Erzgebirge Aue vs Rot-Weiss Essen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Rot-Weiss Essen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.01.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 0-1 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
20.08.2023 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 1-1 HT 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
11.03.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 2-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
02.09.2022 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 2-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
20.04.2007 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-0 HT 0-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL2
19.11.2006 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 0-1 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2

Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Rot-Weiss Essen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2-1
AWAY Rot-Weiss Essen
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
383 Passes 389
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Rot-Weiss Essen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue nicked a narrow win over Rot-Weiss Essen 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Erzgebirge Aue as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 50% of the ball to Rot-Weiss Essen's 50%, shots finished 12-21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 0.83 for Rot-Weiss Essen.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Rot-Weiss Essen?

Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Rot-Weiss Essen in the Germany - 3rd Division on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Rot-Weiss Essen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 43%, draw 23%, Rot-Weiss Essen 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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