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Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Canberra United (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Wellington Phoenix (K) v Canberra United (K) — Team-Based Signals
Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Canberra United (K) Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
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Wellington Phoenix (K) 0-1 Canberra United (K) — Actual Match Statistics
Canberra United (K) squeezed past Wellington Phoenix (K) 1-0 away from home.
Our pre-match lean was Wellington Phoenix (K) at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (68%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Wellington Phoenix (K) had 67% of the ball to Canberra United (K)'s 33%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.88 to 1.17 — the balance of chances actually favoured Wellington Phoenix (K).
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Wellington Phoenix (K) and 0.50 for Canberra United (K).
What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Canberra United (K)?
Wellington Phoenix (K) 0-1 Canberra United (K) in the Australia - W-League on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Canberra United (K)?
Before kick-off our model rated a Wellington Phoenix (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix (K) 53%, draw 22%, Canberra United (K) 25%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.