Spartak Varna 1-3 Ludogorets Razgrad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.91
Draw
29%
3.8
Away
51%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.29
No
55%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
5%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
38%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
14%
+6.7pp
29%
Draw
23%
+6.3pp
51%
Away Win
64%
-13.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
40%
+5.5pp
55%
BTTS No
60%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Ludogorets Razgrad EU Bookmakers 69%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.33/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/0.50
+64% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +86%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
176 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Varna
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Ludogorets Razgrad
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
34% Ball Possession 66%
5 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.04.2023 Ludogorets Razgrad Ludogorets Razgrad 2-1 HT 1-1 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BULK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Varna
1-3
AWAY Ludogorets Razgrad
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ludogorets Razgrad got the better of Spartak Varna 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ludogorets Razgrad as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Spartak Varna had 40% of the ball to Ludogorets Razgrad's 60%, shots finished 11-16.

What was the final score of Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad?

Spartak Varna 1-3 Ludogorets Razgrad in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ludogorets Razgrad win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Spartak Varna 20%, draw 29%, Ludogorets Razgrad 51%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ludogorets Razgrad) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ludogorets Razgrad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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