Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-2 Rakow Czestochowa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 10 Nov 2024

Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-2 HT 0-1
Rakow Czestochowa
📅10/11/2024 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Rakow Czestochowa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.08
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.75
Over 2.5
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.0
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.89
6+ Goals
9%
17.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 29% vs market 27.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.98
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
7%
13.3
X/1
8%
6.72
X/2
11%
4.75
X/X
15%
4.24
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
24%
3.04
2/X
6%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
29%
+0.6pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.9pp
42%
Away Win
43%
-1.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+4.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-4.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.3pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Rakow Czestochowa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 48%
+18% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -9%
1.36/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/0.94
+47% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +15%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
286 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 77%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.2
14.0 Crosses 20.2
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Rakow Czestochowa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.01 xG 1.95
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
307 Passes 360
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-2 HT 2-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
22.07.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 3-0 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
24.02.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-2 HT 1-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
14.08.2022 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 2-2 HT 2-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
18.12.2021 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 5-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
01.08.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-0 HT 2-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-2 Rakow Czestochowa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-2
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
1.86 xG 1.47
64% Ball Possession 36%
22 Total Shots 10
11 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
549 Passes 269
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
35 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Rakow Czestochowa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok and Rakow Czestochowa shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Rakow Czestochowa at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 64% of the ball to Rakow Czestochowa's 36%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 1.86 to 1.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 2.33 for Rakow Czestochowa.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-2 Rakow Czestochowa in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 29%, draw 29%, Rakow Czestochowa 42%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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