Stal Mielec 2-0 Puszcza Niepolomice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
24%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.19
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.68
6+ Goals
8%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 29% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.59
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.85
X/1
15%
4.28
X/2
11%
7.68
X/X
11%
4.67
2/1
12%
24.85
2/2
7%
5.87
2/X
10%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-1.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
24%
Away Win
25%
-1.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.3pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 29%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.99/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.49
+9% / +112% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -34%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
27.6 Crosses 19.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Mielec
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.95 xG 0.51
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
494 Passes 148
84% Pass Accuracy 63%
19 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.02.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-1 HT 0-1 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
07.08.2023 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 1-0 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
05.06.2020 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-0 HT 0-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL1
01.09.2019 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 0-1 HT 0-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL1
29.06.2019 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 0-1 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec HAZ
29.11.2015 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 0-0 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Mielec
2-0
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
2.16 xG 0.19
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
412 Passes 193
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
34 Box Touches 10
32 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepolomice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stal Mielec saw off Puszcza Niepolomice 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Stal Mielec as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Stal Mielec had 65% of the ball to Puszcza Niepolomice's 35%, shots finished 18-5, expected goals 2.16 to 0.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stal Mielec had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Stal Mielec and 0.33 for Puszcza Niepolomice.

What was the final score of Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Stal Mielec 2-0 Puszcza Niepolomice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stal Mielec win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Stal Mielec 48%, draw 28%, Puszcza Niepolomice 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stal Mielec), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stal Mielec) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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