Lech Poznan 5-2 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 10 Nov 2024

Lech Poznan
5-2 HT 2-2
Legia Varşova
📅10/11/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Lech Poznan vs Legia Varşova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.05
Draw
33%
3.18
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.71
Over 2.5
38%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.09
6+ Goals
8%
19.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 35% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.95
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
16%
4.56
X/2
12%
6.89
X/X
21%
4.18
2/1
5%
28.0
2/2
12%
5.28
2/X
5%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
45%
-6.8pp
33%
Draw
28%
+5.3pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
55%
+7.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
45%
-7.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.0pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lech Poznan v Legia Varşova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 31%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.42/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.41
-15% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
21.9 Crosses 18.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Lech Poznan vs Legia Varşova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Legia Varşova
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.95 xG 0.84
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
326 Passes 281
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
12.05.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-2 HT 0-2 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
12.11.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
16.04.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-2 HT 1-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
01.10.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-0 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
09.04.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-1 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
17.10.2021 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-1 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL

Lech Poznan 5-2 Legia Varşova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
5-2
AWAY Legia Varşova
2.61 xG 1.94
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 18
11 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
320 Passes 281
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 30
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan swept aside Legia Varşova 5-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 33% / 29%) promised a tight game; Lech Poznan found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 53% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 47%, shots finished 19-18, expected goals 2.61 to 1.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lech Poznan and 0.83 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Legia Varşova?

Lech Poznan 5-2 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 38%, draw 33%, Legia Varşova 29%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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