Lech Poznan 1-2 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 12 May 2024

Lech Poznan
1-2 HT 0-2
Legia Varşova
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Lech Poznan vs Legia Varşova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.82
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.13
6+ Goals
7%
19.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 35% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.24
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
17%
4.82
X/2
8%
6.27
X/X
14%
4.14
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
18%
4.7
2/X
8%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.3pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lech Poznan v Legia Varşova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 33%
+15% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -10%
1.35/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.52
+34% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -22%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
328 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 73%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
15.4 Crosses 18.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.6

Lech Poznan vs Legia Varşova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Legia Varşova
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.97 xG 0.77
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
316 Passes 306
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
16.04.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-2 HT 1-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
01.10.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-0 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
09.04.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-1 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
17.10.2021 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-1 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
11.04.2021 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-0 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL

Lech Poznan 1-2 Legia Varşova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
1-2
AWAY Legia Varşova
0.49 xG 1.19
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
388 Passes 184
83% Pass Accuracy 69%
14 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova nicked a narrow win over Lech Poznan 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Legia Varşova found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 64% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 36%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.49 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Lech Poznan and 0.50 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Legia Varşova?

Lech Poznan 1-2 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 39%, draw 28%, Legia Varşova 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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