Puszcza Niepolomice 1-0 Warta Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.56
Over 2.5
38%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.42
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
4.95
6+ Goals
7%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.46
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.45
X/1
11%
4.86
X/2
10%
6.11
X/X
18%
3.68
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
16%
4.79
2/X
6%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-3.6pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.7pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
60%
+1.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
40%
-1.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.4pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Warta Poznan EU Bookmakers 33%
+30% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +17%
1.54/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.01
+17% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +145%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
341 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 74%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
10.7 Crosses 13.1
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Warta Poznan
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.97 xG 0.45
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
175 Passes 406
61% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
10.11.2023 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan 0-2 HT 0-2 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
04.07.2020 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan 1-2 HT 0-1 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL1
22.10.2019 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 0-2 HT 0-1 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
1-0
AWAY Warta Poznan
2.05 xG 0.61
38% Ball Possession 62%
22 Total Shots 11
11 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 7
127 Passes 265
58% Pass Accuracy 75%
37 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 30
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Puszcza Niepolomice vs Warta Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puszcza Niepolomice squeezed past Warta Poznan 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 31% / 32%) promised a tight game; Puszcza Niepolomice found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Puszcza Niepolomice had 38% of the ball to Warta Poznan's 62%, shots finished 22-11, expected goals 2.05 to 0.61 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Puszcza Niepolomice's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Puszcza Niepolomice had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Puszcza Niepolomice and 1.00 for Warta Poznan.

What was the final score of Puszcza Niepolomice vs Warta Poznan?

Puszcza Niepolomice 1-0 Warta Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puszcza Niepolomice vs Warta Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puszcza Niepolomice win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Puszcza Niepolomice 36%, draw 31%, Warta Poznan 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Puszcza Niepolomice), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Puszcza Niepolomice) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
12 May 2024
16:00 Widzew Lodz vs Zaglebie Lubin Analysis →
18:30 Lech Poznan vs Legia Varşova Analysis →