Genk 1-2 Paderborn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 11 Jan 2024

📅11/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
27%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
2.59
Over Pick
59%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.43
No
43%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1
20%
5.38
2-3
36%
1.98
4-5
30%
2.62
6+
14%
6.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.79
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
15%
5.17
X/2
10%
6.99
X/X
11%
5.77
2/1 EV
8%
21.75
2/2
10%
4.23
2/X
7%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
48%
Home Win
45%
+3.3pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
27%
Away Win
31%
-3.5pp
41%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
66%
-8.6pp
43%
BTTS No
34%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk The Market 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Paderborn The Market 34%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
1.71/0.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/2.13
+9% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -32%
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
322 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
1-2
AWAY Paderborn
35% Ball Possession 65%
3 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 5
POST-MATCH Genk vs Paderborn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn nicked a narrow win over Genk 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Genk at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Genk had 35% of the ball to Paderborn's 65%, shots finished 3-6.

What was the final score of Genk vs Paderborn?

Genk 1-2 Paderborn in the Friendlies on 11/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Paderborn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Genk 48%, draw 24%, Paderborn 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Genk) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Genk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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