11/01/2024
·
15:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-2
Winterthur vs Livingston Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
55%
Over
45%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
No
44%
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
50%
4-5
16%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 56% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
37%
Home Win
28%
33%
Draw
29%
31%
Away Win
42%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Winterthur v Livingston — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Winterthur
The Market 32%
Head to Head
AWAY
Livingston
The Market 46%
-15% /
-15%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+41% /
+41%
1.30/1.60
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
2.20/0.00
-1%
/
-14%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+44%
/
–
41%
Ball Possession
59%
9
Total Shots
13
3
Shots on Target
4
4
Corners
4
304 · 77%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
412 · 81%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Winterthur vs Livingston
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Winterthur nicked a narrow win over Livingston 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 33% / 31% — and on the day Winterthur made the difference. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while under 2.5 goals (55%) missed.
What was the final score of Winterthur vs Livingston?
Winterthur 3-2 Livingston in the Friendlies on 11/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Winterthur vs Livingston?
Before kick-off our model rated a Winterthur win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Winterthur 37%, draw 33%, Livingston 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Winterthur), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Winterthur)
✗ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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HAZ
More Friendlies
11 Jan 2024