Aveley 1-1 Chesham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
2.99
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.78
Over 2.5
42%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.87
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
19%
3.65
6+ Goals
11%
15.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 30% vs market 27.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
6%
X/2
21%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
30%
-4.7pp
32%
Draw
27%
+5.3pp
43%
Away Win
43%
-0.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aveley EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Chesham United EU Bookmakers 48%
-11% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.29/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
+0% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +21%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
277 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aveley
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Chesham United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
35% Ball Possession 65%
4 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 8
07.09.2024 Chesham United Chesham United 3-2 HT 0-1 Aveley Aveley İCON
15.12.2020 Aveley Aveley 1-3 HT 0-1 Chesham United Chesham United FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aveley
1-1
AWAY Chesham United
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aveley vs Chesham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aveley and Chesham United shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Chesham United at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Aveley had 44% of the ball to Chesham United's 56%, shots finished 13-11.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Chesham United led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Aveley and 3.00 for Chesham United.

What was the final score of Aveley vs Chesham United?

Aveley 1-1 Chesham United in the England - Conference on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aveley vs Chesham United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chesham United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Aveley 25%, draw 32%, Chesham United 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Chesham United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chesham United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İCON More England - Conference
11 Jan 2025
18:00 Rushall Olympic vs Scunthorpe United Analysis →
18:00 Buxton vs Chester Analysis →
18:00 Tonbridge Angels vs Chippenham Town Analysis →
18:00 Weymouth vs Dorking Wanderers Analysis →
18:00 Weston-super-Mare vs St. Albans City Analysis →
18:00 Maidstone United vs Enfield Town Analysis →