PSS Sleman 3-1 Persebaya Surabaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Indonesia League 1, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
41%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
19%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-2.1pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.1pp
41%
Away Win
40%
+1.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.8pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSS Sleman EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Persebaya Surabaya EU Bookmakers 43%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +30% / +31%
1.11/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/0.44
-8% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +150%
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
304 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSS Sleman
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Persebaya Surabaya
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
8 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
275 Passes 212
11.08.2024 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 HT 0-0 PSS Sleman PSS Sleman ENDL1
03.03.2024 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 2-1 HT 2-0 PSS Sleman PSS Sleman ENDL1
13.02.2023 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 4-2 HT 1-0 PSS Sleman PSS Sleman ENDL1
27.08.2022 PSS Sleman PSS Sleman 0-1 HT 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
29.01.2022 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 HT 0-0 PSS Sleman PSS Sleman ENDL1
29.09.2021 PSS Sleman PSS Sleman 1-3 HT 0-2 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
POST-MATCH PSS Sleman vs Persebaya Surabaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSS Sleman got the better of Persebaya Surabaya 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

Our pre-match lean was Persebaya Surabaya at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Persebaya Surabaya led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for PSS Sleman and 2.00 for Persebaya Surabaya.

What was the final score of PSS Sleman vs Persebaya Surabaya?

PSS Sleman 3-1 Persebaya Surabaya in the Indonesia League 1 on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSS Sleman vs Persebaya Surabaya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Persebaya Surabaya win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split PSS Sleman 30%, draw 29%, Persebaya Surabaya 41%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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