Independiente Medellin 1-1 Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 11 Feb 2024

Independiente Medellin
1-1 HT 0-0
Santa Fe
📅11/02/2024 · 🕒04:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Colombia - Primera – 2024

Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.62
Over 2.5
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.6pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.2pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Independiente Medellin v Santa Fe — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 29%
+7% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.29/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.36
+2% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
330 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 75%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
18.1 Crosses 14.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.4

Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Santa Fe
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.77 xG 0.91
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
324 Passes 302
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.08.2023 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
04.02.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 0-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
21.08.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-0 HT 1-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
20.02.2022 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
05.09.2021 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 0-0 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
22.02.2021 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL

Independiente Medellin 1-1 Santa Fe — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
1-1
AWAY Santa Fe
0.42 xG 0.81
64% Ball Possession 36%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
395 Passes 180
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
16 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Independiente Medellin at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 64% of the ball to Santa Fe's 36%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.42 to 0.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santa Fe led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Independiente Medellin and 0.50 for Santa Fe.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?

Independiente Medellin 1-1 Santa Fe in the Colombia - Primera on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 44%, draw 28%, Santa Fe 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Independiente Medellin), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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