PAOK 1-1 AEK Atina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
28%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.19
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.6
6+ Goals
11%
14.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.24
1/2
5%
32.0
1/X
4%
12.35
X/1
19%
5.05
X/2
8%
6.23
X/X
15%
4.31
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
27.0
2/2
15%
4.36
2/X
5%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 9% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
41%
+7.1pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.7pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-3.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PAOK EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +11%
1.02/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/0.81
-6% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 76%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
16.1 Crosses 16.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PAOK
1W-0D-5L
AWAY AEK Atina
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.46 xG 1.09
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
269 Passes 313
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.10.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-0 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
24.05.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-0 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUK
26.04.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 4-0 HT 2-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
02.04.2023 PAOK PAOK 0-1 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
19.02.2023 PAOK PAOK 2-0 HT 1-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
30.10.2022 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-0 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PAOK
1-1
AWAY AEK Atina
1.15 xG 0.97
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
185 Passes 296
64% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PAOK vs AEK Atina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PAOK and AEK Atina couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was PAOK at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, PAOK had 43% of the ball to AEK Atina's 57%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.15 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AEK Atina led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for PAOK and 1.83 for AEK Atina.

What was the final score of PAOK vs AEK Atina?

PAOK 1-1 AEK Atina in the Greece - Super League on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PAOK vs AEK Atina?

Before kick-off our model rated a PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split PAOK 48%, draw 24%, AEK Atina 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PAOK) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PAOK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
YUN More Greece - Super League
11 Feb 2024
17:00 Kifisia vs Volos NFC Analysis →
18:00 Panserraikos vs Panathinaikos Analysis →
20:30 Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis Analysis →