Gagra 0-3 Spaeri — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 11 Mar 2026

Gagra
0-3 HT 0-2
Spaeri
📅11/03/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
29%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
53%
1.8
Over
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
1.76
No
44%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
46%
4-5
20%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
13%
X/1
18%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.8pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-1.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.2pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gagra The Market 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Spaeri The Market 34%
+9% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+31% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
318 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gagra
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Spaeri
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 4
05.11.2024 Spaeri Spaeri 2-2 HT 0-1 Gagra Gagra GURCK
12.12.2022 Spaeri Spaeri 3-1 HT 1-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gagra
0-3
AWAY Spaeri
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gagra vs Spaeri
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spaeri cruised past Gagra 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Gagra at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gagra had 55% of the ball to Spaeri's 45%, shots finished 16-10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Spaeri led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gagra and 2.50 for Spaeri.

What was the final score of Gagra vs Spaeri?

Gagra 0-3 Spaeri in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 11/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gagra vs Spaeri?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gagra win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Gagra 42%, draw 29%, Spaeri 29%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gagra) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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