Saburtalo 3-1 Gagra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 11 Apr 2024

📅11/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
21%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.97
Over 2.5
55%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
57%
-3.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.3pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saburtalo EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Gagra EU Bookmakers 21%
-5% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.49/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/2.13
-29% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
320 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saburtalo
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Gagra
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.11.2023 Gagra Gagra 2-1 HT 0-1 Saburtalo GUR
02.09.2023 Saburtalo 5-0 HT 2-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
20.05.2023 Gagra Gagra 1-2 HT 0-2 Saburtalo GUR
01.04.2023 Saburtalo 3-0 HT 2-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
08.10.2022 Saburtalo 2-1 HT 1-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
29.06.2022 Gagra Gagra 3-3 HT 1-1 Saburtalo GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saburtalo
3-1
AWAY Gagra
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Saburtalo vs Gagra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saburtalo got the better of Gagra 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Saburtalo as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Saburtalo had 46% of the ball to Gagra's 54%, shots finished 16-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saburtalo had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Saburtalo and 1.17 for Gagra.

What was the final score of Saburtalo vs Gagra?

Saburtalo 3-1 Gagra in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 11/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saburtalo vs Gagra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saburtalo win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Saburtalo 54%, draw 25%, Gagra 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saburtalo), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Saburtalo) ✓ Over 2.5
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