Torpedo Kutaisi 3-1 Samgurali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 11 Apr 2024

📅11/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.72
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
11%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
55%
-3.0pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.2pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.2pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Torpedo Kutaisi EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Samgurali EU Bookmakers 23%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -11%
2.34/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.85
+22% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
394 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Torpedo Kutaisi
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Samgurali
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.11.2023 Torpedo Kutaisi Torpedo Kutaisi 0-0 HT 0-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
27.08.2023 Samgurali Samgurali 0-0 HT 0-0 Torpedo Kutaisi Torpedo Kutaisi GUR
14.05.2023 Torpedo Kutaisi Torpedo Kutaisi 1-3 HT 0-2 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
19.03.2023 Samgurali Samgurali 0-0 HT 0-0 Torpedo Kutaisi Torpedo Kutaisi GUR
06.11.2022 Samgurali Samgurali 2-2 HT 1-1 Torpedo Kutaisi Torpedo Kutaisi GUR
01.09.2022 Torpedo Kutaisi Torpedo Kutaisi 3-2 HT 1-1 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Torpedo Kutaisi
3-1
AWAY Samgurali
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Torpedo Kutaisi got the better of Samgurali 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Torpedo Kutaisi as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Torpedo Kutaisi had 57% of the ball to Samgurali's 43%, shots finished 18-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.17 for Samgurali.

What was the final score of Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali?

Torpedo Kutaisi 3-1 Samgurali in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 11/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali?

Before kick-off our model rated a Torpedo Kutaisi win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Torpedo Kutaisi 52%, draw 24%, Samgurali 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Torpedo Kutaisi), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Torpedo Kutaisi) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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