Masr 0-1 Al Ahly — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 11 Apr 2024

Masr
0-1 HT 0-0
Al Ahly
📅11/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.65
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
49%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.98
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.93
6+ Goals
10%
17.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
10%
1/X
10%
X/1
8%
X/2
18%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
19%
+5.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
49%
Away Win
57%
-7.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.9pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Masr EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 61%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -22%
0.64/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.94/0.71
-14% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -9%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
199 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 79%
9.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
13.5 Crosses 23.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Masr
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Al Ahly
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.42 xG 2.26
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
267 Passes 228
71% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 1
23.09.2020 Masr 0-3 HT 0-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
05.01.2020 Al Ahly Al Ahly 3-1 HT 1-0 Masr MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Masr
0-1
AWAY Al Ahly
0.19 xG 2.35
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 23
1 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
245 Passes 403
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 38
11 Crosses 38
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Masr vs Al Ahly
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahly squeezed past Masr 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Al Ahly as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Masr had 40% of the ball to Al Ahly's 60%, shots finished 7-23, expected goals 0.19 to 2.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al Ahly's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Al Ahly led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Masr and 3.00 for Al Ahly.

What was the final score of Masr vs Al Ahly?

Masr 0-1 Al Ahly in the Egypt - Premier League on 11/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Masr vs Al Ahly?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Masr 24%, draw 26%, Al Ahly 49%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahly), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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