FC Bari 1908 2-1 Palermo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.8
Over
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.14
2-3
40%
1.78
4-5
22%
3.59
6+
9%
14.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.09
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.4
X/1
13%
6.15
X/2
13%
5.79
X/X
13%
4.35
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
15%
3.73
2/X
12%
12.3
Value flag · 2/X at 12.3 — our 12% vs market 5.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
35%
-1.2pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.0pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Bari 1908 EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Palermo EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +2%
1.22/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.27
-22% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
320 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 79%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
23.5 Crosses 19.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Bari 1908
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Palermo
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.14 xG 1.74
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
344 Passes 282
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
26.12.2024 Palermo Palermo 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
02.02.2024 Palermo Palermo 3-0 HT 1-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
18.08.2023 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 0-0 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
20.01.2023 Palermo Palermo 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
19.08.2022 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 1-1 HT 0-1 Palermo Palermo İTB
24.04.2022 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 0-2 HT 0-1 Palermo Palermo İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Bari 1908
2-1
AWAY Palermo
1.66 xG 0.49
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
375 Passes 336
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Bari 1908 vs Palermo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Bari 1908 squeezed past Palermo 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 32% / 34% — and on the day FC Bari 1908 made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Bari 1908 had 51% of the ball to Palermo's 49%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.66 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palermo led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for FC Bari 1908 and 1.33 for Palermo.

What was the final score of FC Bari 1908 vs Palermo?

FC Bari 1908 2-1 Palermo in the Italy - Serie B on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Bari 1908 vs Palermo?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Bari 1908 win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split FC Bari 1908 34%, draw 32%, Palermo 34%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/32/34) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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