Palermo 1-0 FC Bari 1908 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.8
Over
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
31%
3.08
2-3
37%
1.74
4-5
23%
3.57
6+
9%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.08 — our 31% vs market 25.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.43
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.55
X/1
15%
4.28
X/2
11%
8.89
X/X
20%
4.55
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
9%
6.89
2/X
4%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-6.2pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.7pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.5pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palermo EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Bari 1908 EU Bookmakers 25%
-10% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -12%
1.68/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.53
-4% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
350 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
25.4 Crosses 16.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palermo
3W-3D-0L
AWAY FC Bari 1908
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.60 xG 1.14
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
304 Passes 330
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.02.2024 Palermo Palermo 3-0 HT 1-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
18.08.2023 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 0-0 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
20.01.2023 Palermo Palermo 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
19.08.2022 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 1-1 HT 0-1 Palermo Palermo İTB
24.04.2022 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 0-2 HT 0-1 Palermo Palermo İTC
19.12.2021 Palermo Palermo 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palermo
1-0
AWAY FC Bari 1908
2.32 xG 1.15
36% Ball Possession 64%
19 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 12
191 Passes 401
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 38
15 Crosses 37
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Palermo vs FC Bari 1908
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palermo squeezed past FC Bari 1908 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Palermo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Palermo had 36% of the ball to FC Bari 1908's 64%, shots finished 19-18, expected goals 2.32 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palermo had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Palermo and 0.17 for FC Bari 1908.

What was the final score of Palermo vs FC Bari 1908?

Palermo 1-0 FC Bari 1908 in the Italy - Serie B on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palermo vs FC Bari 1908?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palermo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Palermo 45%, draw 30%, FC Bari 1908 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palermo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palermo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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