Pisa 3-1 Sassuolo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 26 Dec 2024

Pisa
3-1 HT 2-0
Sassuolo
📅26/12/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2024/2025

Pisa vs Sassuolo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
33%
3.18
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.31
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.37
6+ Goals
12%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 30% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
4.17
1/2
10%
28.0
1/X
9%
12.4
X/1
12%
6.22
X/2
11%
5.47
X/X
16%
4.46
2/1
9%
31.0
2/2
16%
3.47
2/X
8%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-3.9pp
33%
Draw
28%
+4.9pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-1.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pisa v Sassuolo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pisa EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 42%
+3% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +19%
1.41/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.12
+32% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / +14%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
282 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 76%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
20.5 Crosses 16.5
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Pisa vs Sassuolo Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pisa
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Sassuolo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 7
The Meetings
31.01.2009 Pisa Pisa 0-0 HT 0-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTB
16.09.2008 Sassuolo Sassuolo 3-1 HT 2-1 Pisa Pisa İTB

Pisa 3-1 Sassuolo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pisa
3-1
AWAY Sassuolo
1.65 xG 2.35
33% Ball Possession 67%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 2
150 Passes 406
63% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pisa vs Sassuolo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pisa got the better of Sassuolo 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (30% / 33% / 37%) promised a tight game; Pisa found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Pisa had 33% of the ball to Sassuolo's 67%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.65 to 2.35 — on chances, Sassuolo could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sassuolo led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Pisa and 1.50 for Sassuolo.

What was the final score of Pisa vs Sassuolo?

Pisa 3-1 Sassuolo in the Italy - Serie B on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pisa vs Sassuolo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sassuolo win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Pisa 30%, draw 33%, Sassuolo 37%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sassuolo), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sassuolo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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