Spezia 1-1 Mantova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 26 Dec 2024

Spezia
1-1 HT 0-1
Mantova
📅26/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2024/2025

Spezia vs Mantova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
16%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.29
2-3 Goals
44%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.38
6+ Goals
11%
12.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.93
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.2
X/1
23%
3.66
X/2
6%
12.0
X/X
10%
5.53
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
23.85
2/2
5%
9.85
2/X
6%
18.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.85 — our 7% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
61%
-0.0pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.7pp
16%
Away Win
17%
-0.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.7pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Spezia v Mantova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Mantova EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -14%
1.96/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.67
+15% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
339 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 79%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
27.3 Crosses 17.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8

Spezia vs Mantova Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Mantova
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
The Meetings
17.05.2008 Spezia Spezia 0-1 HT 0-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
22.12.2007 Mantova Mantova 3-1 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
13.03.2007 Mantova Mantova 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
14.10.2006 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 1-0 Mantova Mantova İTB

Spezia 1-1 Mantova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
1-1
AWAY Mantova
2.68 xG 0.26
66% Ball Possession 34%
26 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
340 Passes 141
85% Pass Accuracy 62%
62 Box Touches 5
43 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Mantova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia and Mantova couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Spezia carried 61% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Spezia had 66% of the ball to Mantova's 34%, shots finished 26-5, expected goals 2.68 to 0.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Mantova led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Spezia and 1.25 for Mantova.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Mantova?

Spezia 1-1 Mantova in the Italy - Serie B on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Mantova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Spezia 61%, draw 23%, Mantova 16%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Spezia), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spezia) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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