Südtirol 1-2 Cittadella — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.54
Over 2.5
52%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.03
No
49%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
4.88
6+ Goals
11%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.18
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.6
X/1
13%
4.64
X/2
10%
6.85
X/X
9%
3.65
2/1
11%
32.5
2/2
12%
5.55
2/X
10%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.1pp
29%
Draw
31%
-1.6pp
27%
Away Win
27%
+0.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
61%
-12.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
39%
+12.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
45%
+6.0pp
49%
BTTS No
55%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Südtirol EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Cittadella EU Bookmakers 30%
-4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -11%
1.24/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.25
-7% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +14%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
295 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 79%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
20.5 Crosses 24.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Südtirol
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Cittadella
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
0.78 xG 0.69
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
318 Passes 274
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.04.2024 Südtirol Südtirol 0-0 HT 0-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
25.11.2023 Cittadella Cittadella 2-1 HT 1-0 Südtirol Südtirol İTB
13.05.2023 Südtirol Südtirol 1-1 HT 0-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
18.12.2022 Cittadella Cittadella 0-2 HT 0-2 Südtirol Südtirol İTB
11.11.2015 Cittadella Cittadella 3-3 HT 2-1 Südtirol Südtirol İTCK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Südtirol
1-2
AWAY Cittadella
0.75 xG 1.15
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
192 Passes 257
61% Pass Accuracy 68%
18 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Südtirol vs Cittadella
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cittadella nicked a narrow win over Südtirol 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Südtirol at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Südtirol had 45% of the ball to Cittadella's 55%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 0.75 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Südtirol and 1.20 for Cittadella.

What was the final score of Südtirol vs Cittadella?

Südtirol 1-2 Cittadella in the Italy - Serie B on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Südtirol vs Cittadella?

Before kick-off our model rated a Südtirol win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Südtirol 44%, draw 29%, Cittadella 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Südtirol) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Südtirol) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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