Greuther Fürth 1-1 Köln — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.17
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
47%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.07
Over Pick
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.88
2-3
35%
1.84
4-5
22%
3.08
6+
14%
9.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.28
1/2
6%
23.3
1/X
6%
13.2
X/1
10%
7.64
X/2
20%
5.03
X/X
12%
5.1
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
21%
2.75
2/X
5%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 33.0 — our 7% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
28%
+1.4pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.2pp
47%
Away Win
45%
+1.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.7pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Köln EU Bookmakers 49%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.45/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/1.40
+21% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
290 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 76%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.1
16.8 Crosses 17.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Greuther Fürth
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Köln
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.60 xG 2.30
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 10
234 Passes 434
71% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 34
13 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.11.2024 Köln Köln 1-0 HT 0-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
26.02.2022 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 1-1 HT 0-0 Köln Köln AL1
01.10.2021 Köln Köln 3-1 HT 0-1 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL1
06.05.2019 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 0-4 HT 0-3 Köln Köln AL2
01.12.2018 Köln Köln 4-0 HT 1-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
24.02.2014 Köln Köln 1-1 HT 1-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Greuther Fürth
1-1
AWAY Köln
2.53 xG 2.76
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
341 Passes 375
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Greuther Fürth vs Köln
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Greuther Fürth and Köln shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Köln at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Greuther Fürth had 47% of the ball to Köln's 53%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 2.53 to 2.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Köln led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Greuther Fürth and 2.33 for Köln.

What was the final score of Greuther Fürth vs Köln?

Greuther Fürth 1-1 Köln in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Greuther Fürth vs Köln?

Before kick-off our model rated an Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Greuther Fürth 29%, draw 23%, Köln 47%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Köln) ✗ Over 2.5
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